10 Predicciones de bolsa para 2014 interesantes en versión original:
1. Forget Coca-Cola or Pepsi: there’s a new beverage king in town.
SodaStream (NYSE: SODA) — is in a clear uptrend. And I predict it will catch fire over the next 12 months and become a serious threat to Coca-Cola and Pepsi.
2. Apple will create a new currency called iCash and become the largest bank in America.
It recently acquired biometrics security firm AuthenTec (Nasdaq: AUTH)
3. Instead of dealing with doctors, waiting rooms, and painful treatments, a new medical device will allow you to diagnose any illness, anytime, anywhere.
I predict that in the next twelve months a device will be made that allows you to diagnose an illness from your own home. It’ll weigh less than 5 pounds. It’ll cost as little as $50. And it will probably be created by a 16-year-old from Maryland named Jack Andraka.
He’s already created a similar device. In 2012 — then just 15 years old — Jack created a dip stick that detects pancreatic cancer. This detector is “nearly 100% accurate, 28 times faster, 28 times less expensive, and over 100 times more sensitive than current tests,” according to British newspaper Daily Mail.
This achievement won the boy genius a $75,000 scholarship at the 2012 Intel Science Fair. But he’s not resting on his laurels. He’s hard at work on a device that he says will “diagnose any disease instantly.”
4. One of the most important electronic devices of the last 146 years will disappear.
Within the next 12 months, I predict a computer’s primary interface will be touch and voice.
5. Russia will end a 20-year treaty with the United States that’s responsible for 10% of our electricity supply
6. Strategic metals will be caught in a severe supply crunch in 2014.
The Surprise Investment of the Next Year Will Be Uranium.
For example, China has already begun building more than two dozen new reactors. These will triple the size of its nuclear reactor fleet over the next decade. And India has 20 operating nuclear reactors with 7 more under construction.
But all those new reactors can’t deliver a single kilowatt without uranium.
Problem is, there’s not enough to go around. The world’s 435 active reactors burned through about 180 million pounds of uranium last year. But miners could only produce around 140 million pounds — leaving a 40 million pound shortfall.
Rare Earth Metals Will Be Caught in a Severe Supply Crunch in 2013 — Prices Will Soar
7. A bizarre plant from the Midwest will end America’s dependence on foreign oil.
…will be a strange plant called switchgrass.
Like all plants, switchgrass contains a special sugar deep inside it. If extracted properly, this special sugar can be converted into fuel for cars, homes, airplanes…
Switchgrass’ advantage over other plants is that it’s extremely hardy. It can grow on unfertile land. And, if cared for properly, it only needs to be planted once every ten years.
That means companies and farmers could plant switchgrass en masse on land that most crops can’t grow on anyway — and produce billions of gallons of fuel.
According to a 2012 study by Michigan State University, doing this would amount to 5.5 billion gallons of fuel per year. But I think that amount could be more than doubled.
Some of the world’s largest energy corporations — Royal Dutch Shell, BP, etc. — are heavily invested in various alternative projects around the world. Multi-million dollar plants and factories are sprouting up everywhere: Iowa, Brazil, Michigan, India
And stories are starting to show up in mainstream outlets like Forbes, Bloomberg, and Businessweek, as well as in trade publications. We’re getting closer every day.
8. Bolivia’s socialist president Evo Morales will nationalize the world’s largest pure silver mine, now owned by an Idahoan company. The price of silver will soar.
Bolivia, where the country’s socialist president Evo Morales has already threatened to expropriate silver mines. Bolivia is home to the world’s largest pure silver mines, operated by Idaho-based Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE).
9. 2014 will usher in the age of the drone.
– In 2011, a drone was used by a North Dakota sheriff’s department to capture six cow thieves, according to the LA Times.
– A videographer named Daniel Garate uses a $5,000 drone to capture riveting photos of upscale properties in Los Angeles and sells them to realtors. Now he’s being asked to take pictures of celebrities.
– The Georgia Department of Transportation just received a $75,000 grant to study the use of drones for inspecting bridges and roads.
This is a tiny sampling. I could make a list a mile long of innovative drone applications coming to market as we speak. How far could this market go?
U.S. spending has increased 890% in the past decade, going from $550 million to nearly $5 billion. And in 10 years, the FAA predicts that the global drone market could be as much as $90 billion.
Indeed, the FAA projects that the government alone will have more than 10,000 licensed drones by 2017, up from less than 1,000 today.
10. This tiny company will kill the gasoline engine.
The biggest roadblock — which is the fact that most gas stations only offer traditional gasoline — is being solved by a company called Clean Energy Fuels (CEF).
Led by billionaire T. Boone Pickens, CEF built 70 new natural gas filling stations in 2012. And now it’s teaming up with natural gas producer Encana to establish what it calls a “Green Corridor” — a whole chain of filling stations — in North America.
The Chinese are getting in on the action, too. One of China’s largest private companies just partnered with a Salt Lake City firm called CH4. They plan to build a new filling station every week across America.
And as I said, there’s plenty of natural gas to cover demand. Some experts predict that the amount found in existing reserves alone could last for another 90 years.
That means natural gas is extremely affordable for everyone to use. Today, it’s half the cost of diesel.
In other words, any company looking to roll out a new fleet of vehicles could cut their costs by 50% just by using natural gas vehicles.
Comentarios de Predicciones bolsa 2014
En 2014 será recomendable el apetito por el riesgo, según apuntan Jan Hatzius y Dominic Wilson, analistas de Goldman Sachs. En su opinión, las Bolsas de los países desarrollados serán la mejor opción para invertir en un contexto de recuperación económica. Los bajos tipos de interés, la corrección de los últimos años y el avance de la economía dejarán “un notable margen de mejoría” a los mercados desarrollados.
Según sus previsiones, el S&P 500 se irá a los 1.900 puntos al cierre del próximo año, es decir un 6% más que su nivel actual, que roza máximos históricos. Para la Bolsa europea, las estimaciones son todavía mejores. Ve al Stoxx Europe 600 casi un 11% por encima de sus valores actuales.
No obstante, Goldman no descarta una mayor volatilidad que este año, especialmente en algunos momentos del ejercicio, aunque la tendencia será alcista.
Por el contrario, la entidad no ve este recorrido al alza en las Bolsas de los mercados emergentes. El posible freno de China genera la suficiente incertidumbre en estos mercados como para incrementar la exposición. Además, en muchos casos, continúan siendo países con importantes desequilibrios, por lo que Goldman recomienda centrarse en las Bolsas desarrolladas.
Por el contrario, Goldman espera un auténtico desplome del oro, que, según sus cálculos, acabaría 2014 en torno a los 1.050 dólares, un 20% menos de su cotización actual. También espera importantes descensos en el cobre y en el hierro, sobre todo en el tramo final del próximo año.
El crudo también bajará. Goldman ve al barril de Brent en torno a 110 dólares al final de este ejercicio, mientras que en 2014 recortará su precio a 105 dólares. En 2015, su caída será mayor y la cotización bajará a 100 dólares. Esta rebaja ayudará también a impulsar la recuperación de los países desarrollados.
Carbonell de CMC Markets: No hay rally de Navidad, pero si de primer trimestre
El Ibex deja escapar los 9.500 puntos en una jornada anodina, sin mayor referencia que la subasta del Tesoro y las palabras de Draghi. De haber un nuevo movimiento alza, en el entorno a los 9.580 puntos, Sara Carbonell de CMC Markets recomienda entrar de nuevo al mercado con posiciones alcistas.
El indicador compuesto de Pictet no emite una señal clara de venta a pesar de que “los inversores se han vuelto menos optimistas”.
“En 2014 el entorno puede ser más normal, con la política monetaria proporcionando menos soporte, pero con crecimiento económico global y de beneficios empresariales”, sintetiza Paolini. El director de estrategia piensa que el venidero “puede ser un año de transición”.
Muchos han perdido el rally de 2013 y puede darse un aumento rápido de precios de las acciones, especialmente en EEUU y en Europa.
“la reducción efectiva de estímulos monetarios por la Reserva Federal en 2014 puede tener menor impacto que su anuncio en mayo de 2013”.
El riesgo macro más importante que detecta Paolini es la subida de la rentabilidad de los bonos, aunque tampoco descarta que se produzcan problemas en los mercados emergentes: “En China parece estar formándose una burbuja de crédito y está produciéndose un endurecimiento moderado y gradual de su política monetaria. También pude darse inflación fuera de control en Indonesia e India, con impacto en la economía global”. El director de estrategia no se olvida de Europa, de la que afirma que “históricamente no es fiable”, poniendo como ejemplo el rescate de Chipre.
Oportunidades en los emergentes
Paolini encuentra que las valoraciones “son especialmente atractivas, con descuento del 24% frente a desarrolladas en precio-beneficio” y recuerda que los mercados en vías de desarrollo “tienden a comportarse bien en un escenario de recuperación global y mercados al alza”.
El segmento en el que encuentra mayor atractivo es en la deuda corporativa emergente denominada en dólares, ya que muestra “diferenciales atractivos y protección frente a los efectos negativos de la volatilidad de las divisas”.
Diciembre 2013
Banca March prevé un buen 2014 en Bolsa y “no será el último del ciclo alcista”
El próximo año volverá a ser bueno para las Bolsas y no será el último del ciclo alcista actual. Así lo afirma el director general de March Gestión, José Luis Jiménez, que apuesta por la renta variable, especialmente europea, en un contexto en el que otras inversiones, como los depósitos, la renta fija o las materias primas, perderán atractivo
Ed Bowsher de Money Week nos dice:
- A good year for Japan: I think Japan’s Nikkei index will rise by at least 10% next year, taking it to well over 17,000. I wouldn’t be surprised if the rise was actually much larger.
- Bank of England base rate will rise in 2014.
- Inflation will fall in the eurozone
- Tesco will have another bad year
- The BJP will win the Indian election
- Ed Miliband will sack Ed Balls
Worries:
Firstly, I worry about how the US would react to a more serious taper than we’ve seen so far. Given Janet Yellen’s apparently relaxed attitude towards inflation, I can’t see the Fed getting a lot more aggressive, but never say never.
Secondly, I’m concerned by the fact that European banks still haven’t really been ‘cleaned up’ to the extent that has happened in the US. If the tangled politics of Europe get in the way of dealing with this problem, it could potentially lead to another flare up of the eurozone crisis.
And finally, when there’s so much debt across the world, and vast amounts of ‘printed’ money sloshing around, you just can’t be an unreserved optimist. When markets remain this sensitive to the actions of central banks, you can’t take anything for granted.
En el primer trimestre de 2014 veremos en la Bolsa mínimos que no veíamos hace tiempo, según el responsable del Servicio de Estudios y Análisis de Asinver. En su opinión, será sobre todo en Europa, en momentos en los que los datos económicos no acompañen y surjan, puntualmente, dudas acerca de la solidez de la recuperación económica y el miedo a un descarrilamiento. La banca española, y en particular la mediana, será uno de los sectores que más acuse las dudas respecto de la solidez de la recuperación, pero también quien recoja mejor las expectativas de mejoría económica.
…parece que hay consenso de que sera un ano de crecimientos moderados en bolsa. Yo tb apuesto a que el 2014 sera de transicion en bolsas y con volatilidad.
CITIGROUP
Year-end target: 1,900.
Reasoning: Modest improvement in the economy and better company earnings. Enticed by higher returns, investors will move some cash from bonds back into stocks.
BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH
Year-end target: 2,000.
Reasoning: With the Federal Reserve likely to end its bond-buying program, bonds face a tough year. In stocks, the focus will be large multinational companies that can benefit from an improving global economy.
GOLDMAN SACHS
Year-end target: 1900.
Reasoning: The rally of 2013 cannot continue into 2014. Stocks are no longer cheap. Investors are paying more than $16 for every $1 of earnings, versus about $14 at the beginning of 2012. Stocks will keep rising, but more modestly, Goldman analysts say.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL
Year-end target: 1,900.
Reasoning: The Fed pulling out of its stimulus program will lessen the support for U.S. stocks over the next year. Investors should focus on corporate earnings, as well as the modestly improving economy.
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
Year-end target: 1850-1900.
Reasoning: The stock market will trend higher next year, but the returns are unlikely to repeat the gains of 2013. Another round of budget battles between the White House and Congress as well as a new Fed chairwoman will likely impact the market’s growth.