Recompra de acciones propias
Working with the 1,660 stocks covered by the Value Line Investment Survey, we identified companies that bought significant amounts of their own common stock in the ten years from 1974 through 1983. Next we reduced this list to voluntary repurchasers — cutting out, for example, companies that had bought the shares by paying “greenmail” to get rid of a threatening shareholder. Then we measured the total returns (stock appreciation plus dividends) earned by shareholders from the approximate dates of each repurchase “episode” to the end of 1984. For exactly the same periods, we compared the results with total returns earned on Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a generally accepted indicator of “the stock market.”
The outcome is spectacularly decisive. The shareholders in the buyback companies earned superb returns, far exceeding those accruing to investors as a whole. For all episodes measured, the buyback companies showed a median total return, expressed as an annual average, compounded, of 22.6%. The equivalent return for the S&P 500 was only 14.1%.
There’s this really interesting phenomenon that’s taking place that you don’t hear much about, my friends are calling it "De-equitisation." I suppose in the US we’d call it de-equitization with a z but you get the point.
The concept here is that, thanks to a variety of factors, the equity markets are simply not expanding even though nominal stock prices are going up, averages are at all-time highs and the economy is growing a bit. This can be explained thusly according to Cardiff Garcia:
share buybacks + cash M&A – IPOs – secondary share offerings
February of 2013 has just become the biggest share buyback authorization month of all time – $117.8 billion in announced stock repurchases in just four weeks! This is a 103% jump over last February’s total of $68 billion! Combined with the lack of issuance, the return of mergers and buyouts as well as a bullshit IPO climate post-Facebook, and you have a shrinking stock market. Which is a positive for stock investors but, on balance, probably a negative for the economy.
Carpatos nos comenta:
No sólo de los helicópteros de la FED tirando dinero llega dinero a las bolsas de EEUU, hay otra fuente importantísima. En el 2006 esta fuente, ella sola mantuvo al mercado al alza hasta bien entrado el 2007, nos referimos a las recompras de acciones propias.
Aunque las compañías se recompren a sí mismas, en una curiosa paradoja, al final no deja de ser dinero que entra en el mercado.
Y en febrero se han batido récords de recompras de acciones propias. Casi 118.000 millones de dólares.
Entre esto, 118.000 millones más los 85.000 que pone la FED ¿cómo puede bajar una bolsa?
Y es muy cierto.. ahora bien, porque re-compran las empresas acciones propias? Las ven baratas?
Este grafico es cuanto menos interesante y estaria bien tener uno actualizado e ir actualizando en este hilo:
Entrevista a C. Biderman:
I’ve discovered that companies buy back their own shares because they think the price is heading higher. So when a company buys back its own shares using its own money, you should buy that stock too. But only if the company uses its own money. Borrowing money to buy shares is a no-no.
Conversely, when companies are growing their shares outstanding by selling stock to raise money, they don’t like where their stock price is headed. If they don’t want to own their own stock, you shouldn’t either.
My basic philosophy is to follow supply and demand of stocks and money, and you can’t go wrong.
Dan: Your theory has worked very well in practice. Your TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS) beat the S&P 500 by an impressive 12 percentage points in 2013. And that’s really saying something, considering how well the S&P 500 performed.
Charles: Yes, and we’re outperforming the market this year as well.
Dan: What specific investment strategies did you use to generate that return?
Charles: Our fund invests in 100 companies that are growing free cash flow—which is the money left over after taxes, R & D, capital expenditures, and dividends—and using it to buy back their own shares.
We modify our holdings every month because we’ve discovered that the positive effects of buybacks only last for a short time. So when a company stops shrinking its float, we kick it out. Our turnover is about 20 stocks per month.
Dan: The supply side of the equation seems pretty straightforward. What do you use to approximate demand? Money supply numbers?
Charles: Sort of. Institutions own around 80% of the shares of the Russell 1000, so we track the money that flows through them into and out of the stock market.
We also track wage and salary growth. We’re not interested in income generated by government actions, but rather by the wages of the 137 million Americans who have jobs subject to withholding. Money for investment comes from income. People can only invest the money they have left over after they cover expenses.
Income in the US is currently around $7.5 trillion per year. That’s an increase of around $300 million over last year, or a little under 3% after inflation. That’s not sufficient to generate money for investment